polyalpha

Polymarket smart-money paper monitor
updated 2026-09-01 13:51 UTC
Realized paper PnL
$99.33
validated $-75 · watch $175
Paper ROI
1%
Settled win rate
47%
Positions
1 open
RISK active exposure $100 / $2,500 today 40 / 40 copies today realized $-559.26

Copy candidates — validated & copyable (4)

walletgatesbetswinrealizedcopy roicopy inperm p
0x2005d16a…7875ea6/6130078%$694,56082%politics, sports0.000
0x4e25605f…5cd7a76/631885%$358,8884%macro, other, politics0.004
0x7a6192ea…75af246/6161338%$109,48241%other, sports0.002
0x1cdd071b…7de5956/6242544%$5,44091%crypto, other, sports0.000
Validated but NOT copyable (scalp / speed-arb, resolves before we could copy): 0xd0d6053c…

On watch — directional near-misses (22)

walletgatesbetswinrealizedcopy roicopy inperm p
0x8e5c0cc5…caa68a5/67472%$324,2890.399
0x204f72f3…a95e145/6159377%$90,8680.000
0x2a696600…6cd2f75/6224757%$65,0930.000
0x00b23eec…853ef15/6159087%$1,1310.014
0x04edac2e…8f88095/6722888%$8390.002
0x0e93dc44…ac00785/6119450%$5640.001
0x23bc7d98…5d54875/691384%$2600.000
0xf8b720c0…2114de5/6180300%$1100.019
0x541d8c84…0bd5c75/673162%$-690.000
0x1db52f57…05ef2f5/673468%$-860.000
0x4eb25053…fd21265/699556%$-1000.000
0x464c411a…9d352d5/6113079%$-3460.000
0x9d2b7938…e6dd4a5/630571%$-4590.000
0xa8171c1b…ec95d75/6104045%$-6700.001
0x40e98085…b8494f5/653185%$-7960.000
0xcef6c12a…3f2ade5/6526175%$-2,1590.000
0xe9076a87…a0cff65/6256246%$-8,9660.000
0xf040b361…90d11f5/6353863%$-13,3190.000
0xcce2b7c7…60d58b5/613386%$-37,1820.019
0x02a17a92…3cdd725/626257%$-45,3770.017
0x9e3ed7b6…69f8825/6247542%$-106,0430.000
0x821dab05…1acf165/6130276%$-141,7490.000

Forward paper positions   (54 won / 62 lost / 1 open)  excludes 473 backfill settlements ($-13,556)

wallettieroutcomefill (lead → copier)statuspnl
0x2005d1…validatedKuan-Yi Lee0.440 → 0.458won$118.53
0x2005d1…validatedPhiladelphia Phillies0.730 → 0.759won$31.72
0x2005d1…validatedNathan Anthony Barki0.320 → 0.342won$192.06
0x2005d1…validatedBaltimore Orioles0.450 → 0.468won$113.68
0x2005d1…validatedMartin Damm0.540 → 0.562stopped$-90.16
0x2005d1…validatedColorado Rockies0.520 → 0.541stopped$-56.15
0x2005d1…validatedKazuki Nakajima0.200 → 0.214stopped$-70.21
0x2005d1…validatedHarrison Satara0.790 → 0.822won$21.71
0x2005d1…validatedEric Ahren Moonga0.200 → 0.214stopped$-74.18
0x2005d1…validatedNew York Yankees0.040 → 0.046stopped$-81.52
0x2005d1…validatedPhiladelphia Phillies0.270 → 0.289stopped$-99.65
0x2005d1…validatedLos Angeles Angels0.980 → 0.999won$0.10
0x2005d1…validatedYu Tanaka0.380 → 0.407stopped$-54.25
0x2005d1…validatedBaltimore Orioles0.300 → 0.321stopped$-89.41
0x1cdd07…validatedYes0.040 → 0.046stopped$-90.76
Paper trading only. Positions are simulated at the leader's price plus realistic slippage; no real orders are placed. Copy candidates clear all 6 gates AND are copyable (directional, non-scalp, positive copy-ROI in their strong categories). Watch = directional near-misses one gate away. Market makers and scalp/speed-arb wallets are excluded even when they pass on skill.