polyalpha

Polymarket smart-money paper monitor
updated 2026-10-16 22:37 UTC
Realized paper PnL
$-4,063.66
validated $-1,629 · watch $-2,434
Paper ROI
-6%
Settled win rate
63%
Positions
2 open
RISK active exposure $200 / $2,500 today 2 / 40 copies today realized $-194.63

Copy candidates — validated & copyable (4)

walletgatesbetswinrealizedcopy roicopy inperm p
0x2005d16a…7875ea6/6130078%$694,56082%politics, sports0.000
0x4e25605f…5cd7a76/631885%$358,8884%macro, other, politics0.004
0x7a6192ea…75af246/6161338%$109,48241%other, sports0.002
0x1cdd071b…7de5956/6242544%$5,44091%crypto, other, sports0.000
Validated but NOT copyable (scalp / speed-arb, resolves before we could copy): 0xd0d6053c…, 0x1e5bdea4…

On watch — directional near-misses (25)

walletgatesbetswinrealizedcopy roicopy inperm p
0x8e5c0cc5…caa68a5/67472%$324,289——0.399
0x204f72f3…a95e145/6159377%$90,868——0.000
0x2a696600…6cd2f75/6224757%$65,093——0.000
0x00b23eec…853ef15/6159087%$1,131——0.014
0x04edac2e…8f88095/6722888%$839——0.002
0x0e93dc44…ac00785/6119450%$564——0.001
0x23bc7d98…5d54875/691384%$260——0.000
0xf8b720c0…2114de5/6180300%$110——0.019
0x541d8c84…0bd5c75/673162%$-69——0.000
0x1db52f57…05ef2f5/673468%$-86——0.000
0x4eb25053…fd21265/699556%$-100——0.000
0x464c411a…9d352d5/6113079%$-346——0.000
0x9d2b7938…e6dd4a5/630571%$-459——0.000
0xa8171c1b…ec95d75/6104045%$-670——0.001
0x40e98085…b8494f5/653185%$-796——0.000
0xcef6c12a…3f2ade5/6526175%$-2,159——0.000
0xe9076a87…a0cff65/6256246%$-8,966——0.000
0xf040b361…90d11f5/6353863%$-13,319——0.000
0xcce2b7c7…60d58b5/613386%$-37,182——0.019
0x02a17a92…3cdd725/626257%$-45,377——0.017
0x9e3ed7b6…69f8825/6247542%$-106,043——0.000
0x821dab05…1acf165/6130276%$-141,749——0.000
0xcc026b23…d50c6f5/640354%$1,213——0.403
0xa7dcc20b…0ed6a75/64379%$672——0.166
0xf0bb2bf4…2c049f5/6183649%$-773——0.000

Forward paper positions   (445 won / 266 lost / 2 open)  excludes 2788 backfill settlements ($-11,204)

wallettieroutcomefill (lead → copier)statuspnl
0x00b23e…watchYes0.650 → 0.676stopped$-99.37
0x00b23e…watchNo0.897 → 0.933stopped$-95.26
0x00b23e…watchNo0.970 → 0.994won$0.58
0x00b23e…watchYes0.950 → 0.974won$2.70
0x00b23e…watchYes0.970 → 0.994won$0.58
0x00b23e…watchYes0.924 → 0.947won$5.61
0x00b23e…watchNo0.931 → 0.954won$4.79
0x00b23e…watchYes0.820 → 0.853stopped$-99.88
0x00b23e…watchNo0.979 → 0.999won$0.10
0x00b23e…watchNo0.810 → 0.842stopped$-91.93
0x00b23e…watchYes0.960 → 0.984won$1.63
0x00b23e…watchYes0.934 → 0.958stopped$-85.09
0x00b23e…watchYes0.927 → 0.950stopped$-86.88
0x00b23e…watchNo0.942 → 0.966stopped$-95.69
0x00b23e…watchNo0.970 → 0.994won$0.58
Paper trading only. Positions are simulated at the leader's price plus realistic slippage; no real orders are placed. Copy candidates clear all 6 gates AND are copyable (directional, non-scalp, positive copy-ROI in their strong categories). Watch = directional near-misses one gate away. Market makers and scalp/speed-arb wallets are excluded even when they pass on skill.